Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18 2020 | 2635 | 27007 | 86 | 9 | 371 | 512 |
| October 19 2020 | 2674 | 27683 | 90 | 9 | 366 | 522 |
| October 20 2020 | 2736 | 27869 | 99 | 11 | 395 | 552 |
| October 21 2020 | 2783 | 27993 | 99 | 12 | 390 | 572 |
| October 22 2020 | 2850 | 28259 | 103 | 12 | 450 | 586 |
| October 23 2020 | 2941 | 28410 | 104 | 12 | 487 | 633 |
| October 24 2020 | 3057 | 28646 | 109 | 12 | 586 | 716 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.1 | 4.6% | 27 | 0.23% | 29 | 0.25% |
| 10-19 | 14 | 10.4 | 15.4% | 90 | 0.66% | 120 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 20 | 17.0 | 24.2% | 142 | 0.68% | 167 | 0.8% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 9.9 | 13% | 76 | 0.56% | 95 | 0.7% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 8.6 | 10.6% | 62 | 0.59% | 79 | 0.75% |
| 50-59 | 17 | 7.9 | 11.3% | 66 | 0.53% | 74 | 0.59% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 7.4 | 11.3% | 66 | 0.57% | 79 | 0.69% |
| 70+ | 14 | 7.0 | 9.7% | 57 | 0.54% | 73 | 0.7% |
| All ages | 116 | 71.3 | 100% | 586 | 0.56% | 716 | 0.68% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18 2020 | 1032 | 16975 | 42 | 2 | 302 | 391 |
| October 19 2020 | 1124 | 17459 | 43 | 5 | 361 | 475 |
| October 20 2020 | 1130 | 17583 | 48 | 6 | 343 | 463 |
| October 21 2020 | 1215 | 17691 | 48 | 7 | 403 | 517 |
| October 22 2020 | 1279 | 17885 | 48 | 7 | 446 | 549 |
| October 23 2020 | 1318 | 18021 | 51 | 10 | 459 | 555 |
| October 24 2020 | 1397 | 18158 | 55 | 11 | 510 | 610 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.9 | 3.1% | 16 | 0.21% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 4.1 | 7.8% | 40 | 0.48% | 46 | 0.55% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 6.0 | 13.1% | 67 | 0.94% | 87 | 1.22% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 10.6 | 18.2% | 93 | 1.11% | 109 | 1.3% |
| 40-49 | 22 | 9.1 | 16.7% | 85 | 1.1% | 103 | 1.33% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 9.3 | 16.7% | 85 | 0.88% | 106 | 1.09% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 7.3 | 13.1% | 67 | 0.8% | 77 | 0.92% |
| 70+ | 6 | 6.6 | 12% | 61 | 0.86% | 68 | 0.96% |
| All ages | 79 | 54.3 | 100% | 510 | 0.79% | 610 | 0.94% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18 2020 | 781 | 11006 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 259 |
| October 19 2020 | 803 | 11335 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 281 |
| October 20 2020 | 827 | 11393 | 35 | 6 | 229 | 299 |
| October 21 2020 | 858 | 11450 | 37 | 6 | 240 | 323 |
| October 22 2020 | 895 | 11599 | 38 | 6 | 264 | 342 |
| October 23 2020 | 931 | 11712 | 39 | 6 | 286 | 356 |
| October 24 2020 | 970 | 11813 | 39 | 6 | 292 | 372 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18 2020 | 3758 | 30277 | 75 | 15 | 317 | 459 |
| October 19 2020 | 3817 | 30695 | 77 | 15 | 331 | 481 |
| October 20 2020 | 3868 | 30854 | 78 | 15 | 352 | 495 |
| October 21 2020 | 3907 | 31009 | 79 | 15 | 372 | 508 |
| October 22 2020 | 3961 | 31309 | 79 | 17 | 395 | 520 |
| October 23 2020 | 3984 | 31496 | 80 | 17 | 397 | 498 |
| October 24 2020 | 4025 | 31665 | 83 | 20 | 420 | 509 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.0 | 3.1% | 13 | 0.11% | 14 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.1 | 9.5% | 40 | 0.24% | 55 | 0.33% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 12.0 | 26.9% | 113 | 0.53% | 134 | 0.63% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 6.7 | 14% | 59 | 0.43% | 72 | 0.53% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.6 | 13.1% | 55 | 0.4% | 67 | 0.49% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 7.3 | 15.2% | 64 | 0.45% | 68 | 0.48% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.7 | 11% | 46 | 0.32% | 59 | 0.42% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.4 | 7.1% | 30 | 0.23% | 40 | 0.31% |
| All ages | 41 | 43.9 | 100% | 420 | 0.36% | 509 | 0.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18 2020 | 12509 | 223923 | 456 | 46 | 1668 | 2057 |
| October 19 2020 | 12516 | 228420 | 463 | 46 | 1481 | 2002 |
| October 20 2020 | 12821 | 229152 | 468 | 46 | 1581 | 2150 |
| October 21 2020 | 13121 | 229610 | 473 | 46 | 1700 | 2387 |
| October 22 2020 | 13315 | 230959 | 489 | 47 | 1730 | 2474 |
| October 23 2020 | 13555 | 232185 | 489 | 47 | 1862 | 2520 |
| October 24 2020 | 13831 | 233596 | 495 | 48 | 1976 | 2591 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 10.9 | 4.7% | 93 | 0.15% | 122 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 20 | 24.1 | 11.9% | 235 | 0.33% | 313 | 0.44% |
| 20-29 | 80 | 53.6 | 23.4% | 463 | 0.45% | 608 | 0.59% |
| 30-39 | 51 | 36.1 | 16.6% | 328 | 0.43% | 432 | 0.56% |
| 40-49 | 36 | 32.3 | 15% | 297 | 0.45% | 387 | 0.59% |
| 50-59 | 45 | 31.1 | 13.8% | 273 | 0.42% | 357 | 0.54% |
| 60-69 | 20 | 19.0 | 8.9% | 176 | 0.32% | 233 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 17 | 12.1 | 5.6% | 111 | 0.23% | 139 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 276 | 219.3 | 100% | 1976 | 0.36% | 2591 | 0.47% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 18 2020 | 170114 | 1665459 | 9154 | 1588 | 28284 | 37451 |
| October 19 2020 | 173891 | 1703813 | 9319 | 1600 | 29073 | 39532 |
| October 20 2020 | 178482 | 1712883 | 9537 | 1633 | 30922 | 42103 |
| October 21 2020 | 182687 | 1718564 | 9704 | 1681 | 32451 | 43989 |
| October 22 2020 | 186100 | 1730646 | 9855 | 1703 | 33908 | 44270 |
| October 23 2020 | 190478 | 1744072 | 10038 | 1745 | 35007 | 45660 |
| October 24 2020 | 194540 | 1757630 | 10237 | 1770 | 35962 | 46980 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 135 | 148.3 | 3.7% | 1314 | 0.21% | 1677 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 359 | 385.7 | 9.6% | 3442 | 0.45% | 4453 | 0.59% |
| 20-29 | 669 | 683.3 | 16.9% | 6087 | 0.8% | 7975 | 1.05% |
| 30-39 | 623 | 641.0 | 15.9% | 5713 | 0.75% | 7482 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 609 | 601.6 | 14.7% | 5304 | 0.76% | 6890 | 0.99% |
| 50-59 | 734 | 685.6 | 17% | 6099 | 0.75% | 8002 | 0.98% |
| 60-69 | 483 | 482.9 | 11.9% | 4284 | 0.57% | 5634 | 0.74% |
| 70+ | 450 | 422.3 | 10.3% | 3719 | 0.58% | 4867 | 0.76% |
| All ages | 4062 | 4050.6 | 100% | 35962 | 0.62% | 46980 | 0.81% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68.4 | 88.2 | 79.8 | 71.3 | 38.6 | 21.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94.3 | 54.3 | 27.4 | 22.8% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82.2 | 34.3 | 16.7 | 14.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.1 | 33.2 | 63 | 43.9 | 30.6 | 10.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.4 | 44 | 58.5 | 219.3 | 146 | 7.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80.7 | 58.8 | 105.4 | 4050.6 | 2727.4 | 14.5% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 15.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.39 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-14 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1844"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges